NCAA Auto-Bid preview

Today’s post is going to look at the teams that have currently locked up an auto-bid for the NCAA tournament, what their strengths are, and how I think they might do.

ASUN Champion: Queens (NC)

PPG: 84.3

OREB: 10.0

DREB: 23.4

AST: 15.8

FG%: 48.2%

3P%: 35.5%

FT%: 74.3%


Top Players:

  • Nasir Mann (13.3 pts, 5.8 rebs, 2.7 ast)

  • Yoav Berman (12.6 pts, 3.7 rebs, 3.7 ast)

  • Avantae Parker (11.6 pts, 5.6 rebs, 1.2 ast)


Biggest Strengths:

  • Six players scoring in double figures each game

  • Top 25 in points per game and 2-point field goal percentage

Biggest Weaknesses:

  • 348th in opponent points per game

  • They give up a lot of shots each game


Likely Seed:

  • 15

How will they do?

What a run for Queens to make their first NCAA tournament in program history, also their first time eligible. They beat Central Arkansas in a barn burner to win the ASUN. They are a fun team to watch that can score the ball at a high clip, but they also give up a lot of points each game. I think they might be able to keep the first half within 10 points, but are likely going to be first round exits. 


Big South Champion: High Point

PPG: 90.4

OREB: 11.8

DREB: 24.5

AST: 16.5

FG%: 49.3%

3P%: 35.5%

FT%: 74.3%


Top Players:

  • Terry Anderson (15.7 Pts, 5.9 Reb, 1.6 Ast)

  • Rob Martin (15.0 Pts, 1.8 Reb, 3.5 Ast)

  • Conrad Martinez (9.7 Pts, 1.6 Reb, 3.5 Ast)


Biggest Strengths:

  • Top 3 scoring team

  • Best team in steals, they turn you over

  • Top 5 in free throws attempted and made

Biggest Weaknesses:

  • Give up a lot of offensive rebounds

  • Teams shoot 2-pointers well against them


Likely seed:

  • 12

How will they do?

High Point is going to be a scary team for whatever 5 seed draws them. This is a quick team that can turns you over and score most of the time. They lead the country in steals and are 3rd in scoring. I think this can be a second weekend team if they get good matchups. I say they are going to win their first game but fall to the 4-seed in the round of 32. 


Missouri Valley Champion: Northern Iowa

PPG: 69.4

OREB: 7.0

DREB: 25.3

AST: 14.7

FG%: 55.4%

3P%: 34.6%

FT%: 70.0%


Top Players:

  • Trey Campbell (13.5 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 3.8 Ast)

  • Leon Bond (11.7 Pts, 4.9 Reb, 1.4 Ast)

  • Will Hornseth (11.3 Pts, 4.7 Reb, 2.3 Ast)


Biggest Strengths:

  • Their opponents don’t score at all, best team in opponent points per game

  • They commit very few turnovers

  • Opponents get very few shots off

Biggest Weaknesses:

  • They play at a very slow pace

  • Not much scoring


Likely seed:

  • 12

How will they do?

If you missed the old Virginia style of basketball then don’t look too far because Northern Iowa plays very similarly. They are an incredibly slow paced team that doesn’t score the ball much but also doesn’t let their opponents score. If they get an opponent that is uncomfortable playing slow, they could be a problem. I see them losing in the first round, however, as this year’s predicted 5-seeds are fast paced teams that can score. 


Northeast Champion: Long Island University

PPG: 74.3

OREB: 11.6

DREB: 23.4

AST: 13.8

FG%: 48.0%

3P%: 36.4%

FT%: 67.0%


Top Players:

  • Jamal Fuller (16.5 Pts, 5.2 Reb, 2.5 Ast)

  • Malachi Davis (14.2 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 3.5 Ast)

  • Greg Gordon (13.6 Pts, 5.7 Reb, 2.9 Ast)


Biggest Strengths:

  • Rank 13th in blocks per game

  • Good 3-point defense

Biggest Weaknesses:

  • They struggle to score

  • The commit a lot of turnovers


Likely seed:

  • 16

How will they do?

FINS UP! The Long Island University Sharks are going to the NCAA tournament despite not having won their conference tournament yet. Mercyhurst is ineligible due to restrictions with them moving up to D1 so LIU are in! This is a team that is going to be a 16-seed and might get a win in the first four game. I see them losing to the 1-seed in the round of 64. They will be a contender in the mascot bracket so keep an eye out for them then. 


Ohio Valley Champion: Tennessee State

PPG: 80.1

OREB: 13.0

DREB: 24.8

AST: 13.1

FG%: 45.8%

3P%: 31.9%

FT%: 76.3%


Top Players:

  • Aaron Nkrumah (17.7 Pts, 5.6 Reb, 2.9 Ast)

  • Travis Harper (17.3 Pts, 4.3 Reb, 1.2 Ast)

  • Dante Harris (11.5 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 4.5 Ast)


Biggest Strengths:

  • Strong senior class leading the way, older and developed team

  • Can score well and prevent teams from scoring

  • Get a lot of steals and offensive rebounds

Biggest Weaknesses:

  • They take a lot of shots but don’t make many

  • Commit a lot of turnovers


Likely seed:

  • 15

How will they do?

The Tennessee State Tigers are heading back to the NCAA tournament for the first time in 32 years and their third time overall. They are looking for their first tournament win and are going to get one by continuing to play the solid defense they have all year and protecting the ball. They draw a tough seed, likely being 15, and will play a strong group of 2-seeds. The Tigers will likely keep on waiting for their first tournament win, falling in the first round. 


Summit League Champion: North Dakota State

PPG: 81.3

OREB: 11.7

DREB: 24.4

AST: 15.7

FG%: 47.0%

3P%: 36.7%

FT%: 73.3%


Top Players:

  • Damari Wheeler-Thomas (14.2 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 2.9 Ast)

  • Trevian Carson (12.4 Pts, 6.4 Reb, 2.8 Ast)

  • Markhi Strickland (12.1 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 1.3 Ast)


Biggest Strengths:

  • They don’t let opponents get to the free throw line

  • They don’t give up many offensive rebounds

  • They can score the ball well

Biggest Weaknesses:

  • Don’t shoot many free throws

  • Not the best rebounding team 


Likely seed:

  • 14

How will they do?

The Bison of North Dakota State knocked off their rivals North Dakota late Sunday night to capture the Summit League Title. They have made the tournament four times and have a record of 2-4. They are a good shooting team and can put up a lot of points. I think a 14-seed would be favorable for them as this year’s group of 3-seeds aren’t great. While I do think they will get bounced in the first round, I expect them to keep it close. 

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