March 3rd Important Game Recap

 In today’s post I am going to go over the meaningful games from March 3rd and their potential impact on the bracket. 

9. Nebraska vs UCLA (52-72)

Nebraska takes a bad road loss to UCLA losing by 20 to a team that is fighting to stay in the tournament. Nebraska was a 3-seed in my bracket yesterday and that is surely not going to be the case the next time I make one. UCLA was firmly on the 11 line but this win could see them jumping to a 10-seed depending on how the rest of the week goes. Nebraska heads back home to play Iowa on Sunday in their last regular season game while UCLA goes on a “road trip” to take on USC on Saturday. To me, this is more of a bad loss for Nebraska than it is a good win for UCLA. Nebraska started the year on fire and seemed like they could be a national championship contender. After going 20-0 to start, they have gone 5-5 and lost to each ranked team they played. While this doesn’t mean doom in the tournament, they need to win a few games in the Big Ten Tournament to show people they are capable of a deep run. 

TCU vs 10. Texas Tech (73-65)

The scariest teams to play at the end of the season are bubble teams and this is exactly what Texas Tech ran into against TCU. The Horned Frogs have been battling to make the field, currently in my last four in. They have won seven of their last eight games, including four straight, with top 10 wins over Iowa State and now Texas Tech. This is a team that should be a lock with a win in their final game against Cincinnati and a win or two in the Big 12 tournament. Shifting gears to Texas Tech, this is a team that I would be fading. Losing JT Toppin was a major blow to their championship aspirations and they have had some inconsistent results. With great wins over Houston and Arizona but puzzling losses to UCF, Arizona State, and now TCU, I am not sure how this team will do come tournament times. I could be convinced of a deep run with some good results in the Big 12 tournament, but that will have to wait for now.

14. Kansas vs Arizona State (60-70)

My summary of this game is a tough loss for Kansas and a too little too late win for Arizona State. Kansas had an awful first half, being down by 20 and Darryn Peterson only having 2 points at the half. He finished with 15 points, shooting 3-18 from the field, 2-11 from three, and 7-8 from the charity stripe. While they did have a better second half cutting the ASU lead to less than 10 multiple times, there just wasn’t enough to get them over the line. Arizona State had a great game in what may be Bobby Hurley’s final game as head coach, but unfortunately this likely won’t be enough to get them into the tournament without running the table in the Big 12 Tournament. We will see where Kansas goes from here, I am and have been down on them and what they are going to be able to do in March, but doubting Bill Self is never a great plan. 

16. Alabama vs Georgia (88-98)

Georgia picked up a great win last night against Alabama, holding on and winning by 10 over the number 16 team in the country. Georgia is a great team that nobody wants to see either in the SEC or national tournament. Averaging 90 points, 6.4 blocks, and 20 fastbreak points per game, this is a quick team that can turn you over and beat you down the court. This loss doesn’t move Alabama out of 2nd place in the SEC, but certainly makes them catchable with Arkansas right on their tail. They will need a win against “bubble team” Auburn on Saturday to keep this position. While I don’t think that either team will make that deep of a run in the NCAA tournament, I think they will both be a tough team to draw in their respective region. 

Clemson vs 17. North Carolina (63-67)

North Carolina picked up a good win against another tournament team in Clemson. The Tar Heels were down by 3 at half but had a solid second half to lift them over the Tigers for a win on senior night. The Heels are still without star freshman Caleb Wilson, but his goal is to make it back for the season finale against Duke. UNC got the best of Duke last time and will be hoping to do the same come this Saturday. A loss for Clemson here likely won’t affect their seeding too much. They remain fourth in the ACC, a spot they will likely hang onto with ACC worst Georgia Tech as their final game, and will have a good seed going into the Big Dance. I still think they can be a scary team to draw, with Clemson being an 8-seed in my bracket and potential spoiler for a 1-seed in the round of 32. 

Toledo vs 19. Miami OH (72-74)

When are we going to start respecting the Red Hawks of Miami? The MAC team remains the only undefeated team in the country at 30-0 and a chance to make it 31-0 on Friday when they go to their rivals, Ohio. According to ESPN they still have “work to do” to make it to the NCAA tournament with many still thinking they are going to lose the MAC tournament to Akron. Personally, I think it would be insane if Miami OH was left out of the field. This would set an awful precedent for future mid-major teams who have a good season and I believe the selection committee would lose all respectability going forward, especially if they left Miami out for Auburn. As the current number 19 team in the country and likely going to rise, they should not be anything lower than a 6-seed, but will likely end up on the 11 line. 

24. Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss (89-86)

Vanderbilt eeked out a win against Ole Miss, winning by 3 in overtime against a bad Ole Miss team. I have been very low on Vanderbilt after their hot start to the season. They remind me a lot of Nebraska but not as good or able to win big games down the stretch. They have lost three of their last five, all three were unranked but tournament teams. Their other win besides Ole Miss was against Georgia, which is a good win, but not sure how they will do in the SEC tournament and beyond. They play number 23 Tennessee with a lot at stake in terms of SEC standings. The Commodores currently 5th in the SEC, but a loss on Saturday could drop them to 10th. 

George Mason vs VCU (65-70)

VCU got a big win here against George Mason, another good A-10 team. The A-10 is looking to get two teams into the tournament and I believe that Saint Louis and VCU are their best shot at doing this. VCU is only 0.5 games out of first place going into the final game where they go to Dayton, the third place team in the conference. VCU could potentially be a bid stealer, especially if they knock off Saint Louis in A-10 finals. I currently have VCU as the first team out, but could move up to the last team in if Indiana loses to Minnesota or Ohio State. 

Oklahoma State vs UCF (111-104)

UCF took a tough loss in overtime against Oklahoma State, a team that is nowhere near the tournament field in my bracket or others. While I believe that UCF is firmly in the tournament, they are still fighting for a good seed. Some experts have them as an 8-seed, personally, I have them as a 9. They are currently sitting 7th in the Big 12 heading into the final game of the season when they go to West Virginia, UCF has been a streaky team since mid-January. They have traded winning and losing streaks, currently being on another losing streak with 2 in a row. 

Akron vs Central Michigan (77-64)

Akron is the team to watch going into the MAC tournament. Many people believe that they are going to be the team that gives Miami OH their first loss of the season in the conference tournament championship. While I personally do not think this will happen, I won’t say the Zips losing is a guarantee. They are a solid basketball team with their only conference loss being to Miami. They are currently in my next four out, with the only path to making the NCAA tournament being a conference tournament championship. 

Oklahoma vs Missouri (64-80)

Missouri did not play well in their loss to Oklahoma, a team I have as the next next four out. This loss will likely drop them down a seed (8 to 9) at most, but for sure a team to pay attention to going forward. They sit 5th in the conference right now with their final game against Arkansas on Saturday. A win here would be a big boost to their confidence going into the tournament and could give them a better position in the SEC tournament. 

Kentucky vs Texas A&M (85-96)

Bad loss for Kentucky and great win for Texas A&M. Kentucky is a team I do not believe is as good as the teams of past. With 11 losses on the year, they are going to be in the tournament but will likely drop below the 8-seed I currently have them at. Their final game is against number 5 Florida, my last 1 seed in this year’s field. Another loss here will hurt both their SEC standings and NCAA tournament seed. Looking at Texas A&M, this was a win they needed big time. They only have three wins in their last nine games and find themselves as one of the last teams in the field. They go to LSU this weekend with a great chance to lock themselves into a tournament spot. 

BYU vs Cincinnati (68-90)

BYU’s stock continues to drop with their fourth loss in their last five games. While their one win was against Iowa State, they are a tournament lock with their trajectory going the wrong way. AJ Dybantsa is still one of the best players in the country averaging 24.8 points per game and might be the number one pick in the upcoming NBA draft, so never count them out, but I also wouldn’t be buying stock. Cincinnati picked up a huge win that is going to boost their chances of making it off of the first four out. They have some huge wins late in the season, but will need to rack up a few more to make it into the field. 

LSU vs Auburn (74-88)

I am going to keep this one short because of my thoughts on Auburn. They are a team who picked up their 16th win of the season, avoiding going .500. They are 7-10 in the SEC and go to Alabama for their final game of the year. The reason I have them here is because other people think they could make it into the field. There is no reason for them to be here and they shouldn’t be anywhere near the tournament. We will see how they do going forward. 

Utah State vs UNLV (65-92)

Utah State got blown out by UNLV and that is not good for them going forward. They are only 0.5 game above New Mexico, another tournament team. I believe that both of these teams are going to be in the field come selection Sunday, but this loss will bring Utah State off of the 7-seed line and throw their auto-bid odds down with New Mexico right on their tail. 

Thank you for reading and let me know if you have any thoughts or major disagreements!