Final NCAA Tournament Predictions

Welcome to March! We are finally at the NCAA Tournament and I could not be more excited for the games to start today. I am going to go over my final bracket predictions and some of the bigger games based on my picks. You can also listen to me talk about my bracket on the Primetime Sports Podcast hosted By Joey Maiullari. Joey is one of my good friends and has a great podcast where he talks about a variety of areas across the sports world with some fantastic guests. I have our episode linked below this so please check it out!


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Biggest matchups:


EAST 

R64

  • TCU vs Ohio State

    • Virtually the same in all metrics

    • Ohio State is playing a bit better bet TCU can knock off big teams

    • OSU wins because of returning scoring, 58.1% from last season

      • TCU at 26.9%

  • Louisville vs USF

    • Tough matchup for Louisville, not the best team

    • USF scores, grabs boards, and turns teams over better

      • 87.7, 42.7 (15.5, 27.2), 14.3

    • Louisville is the better shooting team

      • 47.0% and 35.7% from three

    • I lean USF

R32

  • Kansas vs St. John’s

    • Only real thing that separates these two teams is the scoring

      • St. John’s at 81.6 and Kansas at 75.6

    • Returning scoring means St. John’s, 23.8% vs 8.3%

  • UCLA vs UConn

    • Similar in scoring ( 77.7 and 77.5)

    • UConn has better scoring defense, 65.1

    • UCLA doesn’t turn the ball over 8.9

    • UConn shares the ball well with 18.4 ast/game

    • UCLA wins, hotter team right now

Elite Eight

  • Duke vs Michigan State

    • This will be a close game that comes down to Free throws and shooting percentages

    • Duke: 49.0%, 35.1%, 72.4%

    • Michigan State: 47.1%, 35.9%, 76.3%

  • Michigan State wins a nail biter

SOUTH

R64

  • North Carolina vs VCU

    • VCU can score the ball better (81.6)

      • Three point shooting at 36.7%

    • UNC takes care of the ball better and better rebounding

    • Caleb Wilson injury hurts, VCU wins

  • Vanderbilt vs McNeese

    • Vandy can score but not defend (86.4 vs 75.2)

      • McNeese is (80.0 vs 66.5)

    • Vandy wins a very close game

    • Better free throws wins the game

R32

  • Nebraska vs Vanderbilt

    • Nebraska is a great defensive team (66.2 oppg)

      • Doesn’t foul either

    • Vandy’s scoring will be halted

    • Nebraska wins a close game

Elite Eight

  • Florida vs Houston

    • Florida’s offense is insane (86.8, 47.8%, 30.8%)

    • Houston’s defense is insane (62.9, 40.0%, 32.1%)

    • Houston takes care of the ball better and turns teams over

    • I don’t know how good Florida is, Houston wins



WEST

R64

  • Arkansas vs Hawaii

    • Arkansas is a great scoring team, 89/9 ppg

    • Hawaii is a great defensive team 69.7 oppg

    • Hawaii is a better rebounding team

    • If Hawaii can slow Arkansas down, they can win

      • They won’t though, Arkansas wins

R32

  • Arkansas vs Wisconsin

    • Both great offensive teams

      • Wisconsin is better defensively 

    • Wisconsin takes care of the ball better

      • Arkansas turns teams over better

    • Wisconsin’s rest from the conference tournament wins this game

  • BYU vs Gonzaga

    • Both high scoring teams

      • Gonzaga is a great defensive team, 66.0 oppg

    • Both teams rebound at a high level

    • I don’t love either team, I think Gonzaga will overwhelm BYU and win

Sweet Sixteen

  • Gonzaga vs Purdue

    • I don’t like either of these teams

    • Gonzaga is a better scoring and defensive team

    • They both take care of the ball well

    • I think Gonzaga wins a close game

Elite Eight

  • Arizona vs Gonzaga

    • I think Arizona rolls here, Gonzaga limps into the elite eight to begin with



Midwest

R64

  • Texas Tech vs Akron

    • Akron scores like crazy (88.4)

    • Both shoot the three well

    • Neither turns the ball over, but Akron turns teams over better

    • Akron is hot right now and they win a close one

  • Alabama vs Hofstra

    • Alabama is a great team, but just lost their 2nd best player

      • They have depth but their next best scorer now averages 12.8 ppg

    • Hofstra’s great defense against Alabama’s bad defense

    • I think the loss of Aden Holloway this close to the tournament destroys them, Hofstra wins

Sweet Sixteen

  • Virginia vs Iowa State

    • Both are great offensive and defensive teams

    • Both don’t turn the ball over, but Iowa State turns teams over better

    • Iowa State’s awful free throw shooting at 67.2% could hurt them

    • Going back to returning scoring, Virginia returns 0.2% of their scoring while Iowa State returns 47.2% 

    • Iowa State wins a great game

Elite Eight

  • Michigan vs Iowa State

    • Two great offensive and defensive, teams

    • Michigan turns the ball over a bit more

    • Michigan has struggled in big games this year

      • Iowa State too, but not as much

    • Michigan is a better rebounding team

    • LJ Cason injury will hurt them, Iowa State wins



FINAL FOUR


  • Arizona vs Iowa State

    • Elite Big 12 matchup, Arizona has won both matchups

    • Throw the stats out the window for this one

    • It is insanely hard to beat a team three times in a year

    • Iowa State wins

  • Michigan State vs Houston

    • Two historic programs and coaches

    • Houston’s defense is going to slow down the Spartan offense

    • Kelvin Sampson gets back to the National Championship



NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

  • Houston vs Iowa State

    • An all Big 12 championship

    • Iowa State won their first meeting by 3 in Ames

      • Indianapolis is a defacto home game for them

    • This is going to be a low scoring, great defensive game

    • Houston wins the national championship

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